The following guide article deals with a very specific topic in the field of sports betting: the Poisson distribution. Before the majority of readers put down their laptops, smartphones or tablets, it is important to clarify something first: Even without mathematical knowledge (in fact, even without any knowledge of the subject at all), the Poisson distribution can be used to your own advantage. Mathematical knowledge is key in the entire gambling sector, regardless if you are playing at 22Bet casino or at another website.
Especially when creating your own betting models, it is even an almost indispensable factor if you want to determine your own probabilities beyond completely primitive calculations. Betting Base attempts to approach this complex topic slowly and cautiously. First of all, the question of what mathematical probability distributions actually are must be asked before the Poisson distribution in particular can be discussed. Then the equally important question of how Poisson can be used for sports betting is at the forefront of our considerations.
What are mathematical distributions?
At the beginning of the article, it was promised that the Poisson distribution can be used even without mathematical knowledge. This is absolutely true. Nevertheless, it doesn’t hurt to understand the theory behind the formulas used, at least in broad terms, in order to better understand possible correlations or misinterpretations. It actually sounds quite banal. A probability distribution does nothing other than, as the name suggests, distribute probabilities to different outcomes as accurately as possible.
Let’s look at an example to illustrate this. Ex-biathlete Martin Fourcade hit an average of 90% of the targets. For the sake of simplicity, we will ignore factors such as different wind strengths or physical condition for the time being. As usual, he shoots five times in one shot. The probability distribution then indicates the percentage with which Martin Fourcade hits all five targets in this shooting exercise, or only hits four, three, two, one or even zero targets. As mentioned, probabilities are distributed over different outcomes (in this case the possible number of hits).
The same pattern can of course also be applied in other areas of sport, in soccer for example in penalty shoot-outs. The probability distribution described above is known as a normal distribution. Some of you may remember this from your high school mathematics lessons. While the normal distribution is useful and very accurate in many areas of business and everyday life, the Poisson distribution is more suitable for sports betting. Why this is the case is explained in the next chapter.
Digression for math geeks: What is the difference between a discrete and a continuous probability distribution?
This fundamental distinction is made between the different distributions. In principle, this is also quite simple. While discrete probability distributions can only accept whole, natural numbers (1,2,3,…), a continuous distribution can also accept decimal fractions (2,4 or even 5.83725). It seems obvious why both the normal distribution and the Poisson distribution relevant to us are discrete. In the above example, it is of course not possible for Martin Fourcade to hit 2.4 of his five targets, but only integer outcomes can occur.